Shea Weber is a 6'4" 234-pound defenseman who can hit, skate, fight, set up a scoring chance with a nice pass or just score himself with a blistering slap shot.
He should win the Norris Trophy this spring, and has won a Gold Medal with Canada in the 2010 Olympics.
He is basically the next Chris Pronger.
He is also a restricted free agent on July 1st.
There has been a lot of talk about other teams trying to steal the Nashville captain on July 1st.
However, that is just a fantasy and probably isn't going to happen.
Yes, the possibility is there, but to sign a restricted free agent, two things have to happen.
First, Weber would have to sign the offer sheet.
Yes, he held off talks on a contract extension until after the playoffs, which usually is a harbinger of a player leaving town. However, I think that was a delay to see what Nashville would do to improve the team.
The Predators brought in Mike Fischer with a trade, and they also won a playoff round for the first time in franchise history before falling in six closely-fought games to the Vancouver Canucks.
Nashville is moving forward and improving as a franchise, and I think Weber will want to stay and be a part of it.
Second, Nashville would have the right to match any offer sheet within seven days to retain Weber.
Nashville has plenty of cap space to do so, but they also have to deal with a concept foreign to most teams, an internal budget.
Historically Nashville hasn't opened the vault for free agents or even their own restricted free agents (see Dan Hamhuis leaving last summer), but for their captain and best player, I think they would match anything that was short of a ludicrous offer.
Coach Barry Trotz went on record a few days ago with AOL Sporting News to reiterate the Predator's stance
“We’ll just match it,” Trotz told Sporting News. “I can tell you, whatever they offer, it’ll just get matched.”
This may just be hyperbole, but you can assume any reasonable offer would be matched.
Even if Weber signs the offer sheet and Nashville declines to match, the team making the offer still owes compensation to Nashville.
Based on the 2010 salary cap, compensation would be as follows:
$6,183,925 to $7,729,907 = Two first-round draft picks, second-round draft pick, third-round draft pick.
>$7,729,907 = Four first-round draft picks.
Anything less than $7,729,907 I think the Predators match. If it is more than that, the offer sheet would be for an insanely high contract, and they'd have to think about it.
But is any team really going to offer eight million dollars in cap space and their next four first-round picks?
The only teams that I predict have even the slightest chance of getting Weber to sign an offer sheet that Nashville wouldn't match would be Detroit and Vancouver, and even then it is very unlikely.
Detroit is facing huge problems on the blueline with Rafalski retiring, and Lidstrom still pondering whether to play one more year.
Weber would go a long way to filling that void, and Detroit historically drafts well enough that they wouldn't be totally crippling their farm system by giving up all those draft picks.
However, Detroit is in the same division as Nashville, and I don't think Weber would leave his first NHL team to sign on with a divisional rival. Leaving is one thing, but that would be insult added to injury to Nashville fans, and Weber is too classy a guy to do that.
Vancouver is another dark horse. Like Detroit, Vancouver is facing losing a major part of their defence corps. Sami Salo, Christian Ehrhoff and Kevin Bieksa are all unrestricted free agents on July 1st.
Regardless if Vancouver wins the Stanley Cup or not, their playoff run is going to make these defenseman very hot commodities on July 1st.
Like Detroit, Vancouver also has a deep pool of prospects, and also is successful at finding players who weren't drafted. Alex Burrows and Chris Tanev are two examples of players that Vancouver unearthed after they went undrafted, and both have played roles in the playoff run.
Vancouver also has a window of the next few years to win a Cup (or repeat if they win this spring), with their key forwards all under reasonable contracts and in the prime of their careers.
It might be worth risking a rebuilding period by giving up those draft picks if it meant adding that last piece of the puzzle in a Norris Trophy calibre defenseman. (Of course, Bieksa already is that good if you listen to Don Cherry)
Lastly, Weber also has ties to Vancouver. He grew up in British Columbia and played his junior hockey there as well. His former Nashville teammate Dan Hamhuis was in the same situation, and made the free-agent jump to Vancouver last summer. Weber might be tempted to do the same.
In the end though, I think Weber signs a reasonable deal in the $6,000,000 range and stays in Nashville. Still, it is nice to dream of your team making a bold move to add a premier player like Weber.
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