The eighth-seeded Michigan Wolverines are set to do battle with the ninth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers on Friday, March 18th. Tip is set for 12:40 EST and the winner will likely advance to play Duke in the West Region.
Taking a look at the NCAA tournament odds, I find a line of Tennessee -1.5 over Michigan. This is a rare occasion where the lower seed is the favorite, but that shouldn’t be too much of a surprise considering this seeding line is basically a 50/50 game. I’ll preview both teams below and offer my NCAA expert bracket picks on which squad advances.
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines got into the Big Dance with a 19-13 record. What really helped them were their six wins against teams in the RPI Top 50. Even more impressive is their numerous close losses, including a three-point setback against Syracuse, a four-point loss to Ohio State, a two-point loss to Illinois, a one-point loss to Wisconsin and an overtime defeat at the hands of Kansas. This isn’t the first rodeo for head coach John Beilein, who has done a tremendous job of turning this program around.
Beilein runs a hybrid-Princeton offense that utilizes three and four guards at once while outside shooting and creating mismatches are a premium. Sophomore point guard Darius Morris (15.1 ppg, 6.8 apg) is excellent at getting into the teeth of the defense and scoring or dishing it out to open shooters. Freshman guard Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.8 ppg) is a rising star and is the son of a former NBA great.
Michigan also does a nice job of mixing up their defensive schemes to match the opposition. They run man-to-man, 2-3 zone and 1-3-1 zone which teams don’t see every day. This is a team that hoisted up 704 three-pointers during the season and they live and die by it despite hitting just 35.3 percent from distance.
Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols are one of six teams to get into the Big Dance with 14 losses. Tennessee went 19-14 this season, but really played their best basketball against the best competition. That’s indicated by the fact that Tennessee went 8-7 against the RPI Top 50 which left no doubt they would get an at-large bid. A couple of their impressive wins include the likes of Villanova and Pittsburgh from the Big East.
Tennessee’s biggest weakness is their defense, where they allow 67.3 points per game. It fell apart numerous times during the regular season, even at home. They also don’t shoot the three-pointer (30.4 percent) very well.
Scotty Hopson (17.7 ppg) is their top playmaker, and he can fill it up from outside (38.3 percent from three) and can get to the basket. Freshman forward Tobias Harris (14.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg) has been a pleasant surprise this season. The Vols also get a nice boost off the bench from Brian Williams (7.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg) who brings an attitude and toughness.
My Pick: Michigan Wins
The Wolverines are playing their best basketball of the season with an 8-3 record over their last 11 games. They play a difficult style of offense to prepare for, with big men playing away from the hoops, backdoor cuts and a plethora of three-pointers. Their multiple defensive schemes can also cause opponents a headache. Their zones could really hurt the Vols, who don’t shoot well from three-point range. March Madness is a guard-dominated time of year, and they have two of the best in Morris and Hardaway.
Feel free to comment on whether or not you agree. I hope you enjoyed my NCAA tournament picks on this game and best of lucky with yours!
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