Friday, July 15, 2011

2011 Mississippi State College Football Predictions

Dan Mullen has completely turned around the Mississippi State football program in just two seasons. 

This team barely missed making a bowl game in his first year in 2009 at 5-7, but came back to post a 9-4 record in 2010. 

After crushing Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl, the Bulldogs have a lot of momentum heading into 2011.

MSU welcomes back 16 starters this season to make them one of the most experienced teams in the SEC. 

The schedule ahead is about as tough as it gets, but this is a team that has proven they can pull off a few upsets—they have four outright wins as underdogs over the past two years, including a 10-7 victory at Florida last season. 

Here is a look at their offense and defense heading into the fall, as well as my Mississippi State predictions on where they will finish in the SEC West standings come season’s end. 

 

Offense:

Mullen took over an offense in 2009 that had not gained more than 300 total yards/game in any of the previous four seasons.

Last year, the Bulldogs put up 29.0 points and 401 yards/game. 

MSU figures to get even more production from their offense in 2011, considering nine starters return. 

Senior QB Chris Relf is back after throwing for 1,789 yards and 13 touchdowns to 6 interceptions a year ago. Relf also finished second on the team in rushing (713 yards, 5 TD).

Senior RB Vick Ballard led the way with 968 rushing yards and a whopping 19 touchdowns last season. Sophomore LeDarius Perkins (566 yards, 3 TD) was third on the team in rushing, and he teams with Ballard to form an excellent 1-2 punch in the backfield. 

The Bulldogs welcome back their top four receivers from 2010. They are junior WRs Chad Bumphis (44 catches, 634 yards, 5 TD), Arceto Clark (25, 362, 3), Chris Smith (24, 264, 1), and Brandon Heavens (22, 316, 2). Senior TE Marcus Green returns to his starting role as well.

Mississippi State’s offensive line paved the way for 215 rushing yards/game on 4.5 yards/carry while allowing 23 sacks. 

Three starters return up front, but they lose two in C JC Brignone (3-year starter) and first-team All-SEC LT Derek Sherrod (first-round pick, Green Bay).

Junior Tobias Smith will have to try and fend off talented redshirt freshman Damien Robinson for the starting LG spot, while former JUCO stud James Carmon makes the switch from DT to replace Sherrod at LT. 

 

Defense:

Mullen is a defensive specialist, and his Bulldogs were dominant on this end of the field in 2010—MSU allowed just 19.8 points and 357 total yards/game last year. 

The highlights of their season were giving up only 17 points to eventual national champion Auburn and also limiting Florida to seven points in Gainesville. 

Seven starters return, including three along the defensive line. Junior DT’s Josh Boyd (24 tackles, 6.5 for loss) and Fletcher Cox (29 tackles, 6.5 loss) are dominant forces inside. Senior DE Sean Ferguson (23 tackles, 5 for loss) and junior DE Trevor Stigers (19 tackles, 4.5 for loss) round out the starting D-line rotation.

The one question mark on defense will be at linebacker, where the Bulldogs will have to replace their No. 1, No. 2 and No. 7 tacklers from last season. First-team All-SEC MLB Chris White (110 tackles, 15.5 for loss), fourth-team All-SEC WLB KJ Wright (96 tackles, 8 for loss), and SLB Emmanuel Gatling (45 tackles) will all be missed. 

Wright was drafted in the fourth round by Seattle, while White was drafted in the sixth round by Buffalo. 

MSU returns two backups in junior Cameron Lawrence (34 tackles) and sophomore Chris Hughes (13 tackles). They also add senior Brandon Maye, who transferred from Clemson after registering 233 career tackles and 5.5 sacks in three years with the Tigers.

The Bulldogs were somewhat soft against the pass a year ago, allowing 238 yards/game on 57.8 percent completions in 2010. 

They should be much stronger this season with four returning starters in the secondary. They have two excellent junior corners in Johnthan Banks (54 tackles, 7 pass break-ups, 3 INT) and Corey Broomfield (52 tackles, 6 PBU, 3 INT). 

MSU also features a strong safety tandem with senior SS Charles Mitchell (No. 3 tackler, 93 tackles) and sophomore FS Nickoe Whitley (second-team Freshman All-American, 3 INT). 

 

SEC Prediction: 3rd Place West Division

The Bulldogs have been underrated in each of Mullen’s first two seasons on the job. While they are getting a little more respect this season after finishing as the No. 15 team in the country, I believe this is still an underrated bunch in 2011. 

There are many potential upsets upcoming with a brutal schedule that includes road games against Arkansas and Georgia. But their toughest games come at home against Alabama, South Carolina, and LSU, meaning they are all winnable with the Cowbells in support. 

This is a squad that I believe is going to spoil a few other teams’ seasons in the SEC. 

I have the Bulldogs finishing ahead of Arkansas, though those two are interchangeable in my opinion. 

Be sure to take a look at my SEC predictions to see where I have all 12 teams finishing in their respective divisions.

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